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2:12PM

Trouble with numbers

Over at ESPN's new sabermetrics blawg ($) Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus notes that the White Sox look like an all-or-nothing team again this year, continuing a recent trend:

While Ozzie has made his love for small-ball well known, his teams have been overly reliant on the long ball. So reliant that BP colleague Joe Sheehan christened the Guillen Number, which measures the percentage of a team's runs derived from homers. Last year, the White Sox ranked third in the majors at 41.0 percent, trailing only the Yankees (45.1 percent) and the Phillies (42.1 percent). In fact, they've been among MLB's top four during every year of Guillen's tenure.

Fact is fact but I'm not sure this is a bad thing. Here are rankings for Sox Park in two categories during Guillen's tenure. The first is overall run factor, and the second is home run factor (source here).

2009: 9th, 4th

2008: 4th, 2nd

2007: 9th, 4th

2006: 9th, 2nd

2005: 9th, 2nd

2004: 3rd, 1st

Obviously it's a good hitter's park but a great home run park. Not only is that going to skew the ratio a bit when you calculate the percentage of their runs derived from longballs, but it also suggests that by stacking the lineup with power hitters they're just taking advantage of their yard. I'll take Jay's broader points that this is a lousy team on the bases and that they could stand to diversify their attack a bit, but I don't think the monochromatic offense is quite the problem it may seem.

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