Zack Greinke
One paradoxical effect of well intentioned efforts to treat mental illness as something that doesn't deserve any special stigma is that it ends up being treated as something other than an illness. This can make you forget that Zack Greinke does, actually, have a fairly serious chronic illness. I have no idea what you'd analogize it to, exactly—bum elbow? diabetes? alcoholism?—but it's a real medical issue, teams concerned with it aren't being insensitive, and it doubtless rightly affects his market value.
On a given night Greinke is brilliant, as much so as anyone I've seen other than Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez. Every pitch moves, few are thrown at the same speed or angle, and he has an unreal knack for tantalizing hitters by putting the ball just out of their reach. He's like a slide guitarist hitting notes that would fall between the keys on a piano. That said, Greinke is 27 and, in seasons other than 2009, has allowed 4.25 earned runs per nine.
These two things being so, I'm surprised by how much the Royals got for him, not how little.
Last year I rated Dayton Moore the worst general manager in the major leagues, not because he is good at nothing—the Royals are generally held to have one of the best minor league systems anyone has seen in years—but because he is, as the man who has acquired Yuniesky Betancourt and Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera and the rest, apparently uniquely bad at judging major league talent. This raises a question: When judging his haul, should we view it as that of a man with a better eye for young talent than nearly anyone else, or that of the man who traded for Betancourt?
It's probably wise to be skeptical of the Royals' farm system, because they have yet to turn one of their prospects into a star and the ability to do so is what distinguishes a really great system, like Tampa Bay's. This makes Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain especially interesting test subjects. Both have real talent and if the Royals' staff can help them develop into solid contributors that will be telling, just as it will be telling if both stagnate.
I like Milwaukee, from the Quadracci Pavilion to Downtown Books to the vegan bar food at Palomino's. It isn't, though, really a major league town, and in fact accounting for population and income its market is less than a third the major league average. The Brewers' relative success—90 wins and a playoff spot two years ago, good chances at winning their division this year, two coups on the trade market—exposes a lot of rhetoric about what teams in small cities can do under baseball's current economic scheme.
12 Comments
Reader Comments (12)
You're a great and brilliant contrarian, but come on...they traded a Cy Young pitcher for a bunch of grade B and C prospects. They couldn't get Jesus Montero and Ivan Nova? Or Jenry Mejia and Wilmer Flores? There had to be a better deal out there. I think I've mentioned that an old sportswriter friend once told me that he initially thought the average baseball GM was no smarter than most educated fans - and after years of following the game he came to think that again.
Alternately, they traded a guy with a chronic disease who's had one great season and is owed $27MM over the next two seasons, and when you think of it that way a return of two cheap young starters at premium positions, a potential closer and a very well-regarded starting prospect isn't bad at all. And for what it's worth, the Yankees didn't think Greinke could handle New York. I agree on the point about general managers, though.
I understand where you're coming from in regards to Greinke's anxiety disorder, Tim, but this is a really poor job of assessing the concrete portion of his track record - or, rather, a misleading job. You're, in essence, treating '09 as an outlier rather than a data point, and that's hand waving a true talent estimation - what has to happen before you apply other adjustments. Phrasing your description of his career the way you have is accurate, but misleading. That 4.25 ERA in non-'09 seasons is absolutely meaningless(even beyond using ERA in lieu of fielding independent metrics that look a lot shinier and are, you know, better), because 2009 happened.
I have never watched Greinke pitch enough to see what makes him tick. Based on his 2010 and 2008 stats, he gets blown up (4+ ER) once a month and pitches well in his other starts. The only pitcher I have watched regularly that does that is Mike Pelfrey. Now, of course, Greinke is a strikeout pitcher and Pelfrey is a contact pitcher, and Greinke has more talent than Pelfrey. Whatever the cause (diagnosable disease or lack of confidence/concentration), they both are players that have a pattern of not being "good" for 33 starts. So are they worth enough for 23 "good" starts?
I'm sure I could find other Cy Young precedents for guys that went downhill, but the most recent one I know of was Pat Hentgen. He was a great pitcher in the mid-1990s and won the AL CY in '96 at age 27. He was good again in '97, but then he posted an ERA of 4.90 and an ERA+ of 95 for the rest of his career.
TCQ, that's true, but I take it for granted that people reading this site don't need to have such things spelled out for them. Referencing the 4.25 ERA is just a more concrete way of saying 'He's been pretty inconsistent,' not a backhanded way of saying that he's a fraud.
David, I don't want to play mindreader but I think it's a concentration issue more than anything. If anyone can fix it they'll have an unbelievable pitcher; I go out of my way to watch Greinke starts and he really does have Maddux/Martinez level talent, if not ability to apply it.
Fair enough then, I'm not going to make a huge deal out of semantics.
You can look at Greinke in two ways: as a hugely talented pitcher held back by a disease, or as a hugely talented pitcher held back by whatever the hell else - just like a lot of other MLB and even minor league pitchers. Either way, I don't think it's fair to discard the best estimates of his next two seasons' value because there's perhaps a greater chance he completely blows up. If that's your opinion, that might not be worth more than half a win per season (blow up being tail end of the distribution) or whatever, and then evaluate. Your stance on his mental status would seem to imply a roughly fair trade when plugged into trade eval frameworks I've seen elsewhere...
Moore is the worst GM in baseball. The only reason he has minor league talent is because the Royals LOSE every year!
As for Grienke, I think it was worth the pickup for the Brew Crew. The division is weak and they now have a legitimate shot. A profitable post season could help for the near future.
"or as a hugely talented pitcher held back by whatever the hell else"
whatever the hell else = Kansas City Royals/Dayton Moore
Fangraphs did an article a few days ago about how the trade market has diverged from the FA market in terms of the value paid to acquire elite talent. You'll pay top dollar for current free agents, but you no longer have to give up premium prospects for players who are in their Arb years or who are soon to be free agents. It's entirely possible that the Royals took the best deal that was on the table.
Even though the article claims that Milwaukee isn't a major league town because of their small market size, they sure pack their stadium pretty good. Despite having a mediocre team and being in one of the smallest markets in MLB, the Brewers have drawn over 3 million 2 of the past 3 years and last year, despite only drawing 2.7 million, they still ranked 11th in MLB attendance. With fan support like this, it helps push up the payroll. While their payroll will never match the Yankees or Red Sox payroll, it outdoes other teams in larger markets thanks to their large attendance.
Dayton Moore is a great gm. We have a bright future. Open your eyes and you guys will see it. By the way tim we signed to guys who are still young in jeff and melky why not take a chance on them. If they do good we trade them for prospects or draft picks. even tim needs to open his eyes.
I take it for granted that people reading this site don't need to have such things spelled out for them.
and
Dayton Moore is a great gm...we signed to guys who are still young in jeff and melky