Cliff Lee
Cliff Lee entered Game One of the World Series against the San Francisco Giants with a lower chance of giving up seven or more runs than an average pitcher would have. Due largely to random variance, he beat the odds and pitched badly.
"I didn't have my good stuff going tonight," he said. "But I doubt that made a difference. I'm not a six-sided die, but mathematically I act like one and function with surprisingly little agency. Any game I pitch is just an expression of my true talent, that of my opponents and something that isn't quite what the average person means when they say 'luck' but works more or less the same way. I hope for a 90th percentile outcome every time out, but to me it's really all about sticking near my mean outcome and giving the guys a chance to win."
Lee also noted that his spectacular postseason performance to date had relatively little bearing on his odds of pitching well against the Giants.
"Over the last three years I've had a 2.98 ERA in the regular season. If you add in my postseason pitching, that drops to 2.83. I mean, it's significant in that by taking account of how well I've pitched in October we can raise our confidence in our estimate of my true talent level, but ultimately I'm about a 2.83 pitcher and I'm thus likely to give up seven runs once every 18 or so games."
Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington was optimistic after the game, stressing to reporters that odds were that Lee would pitch well next time out, but he cautioned fans not to expect that the ace, a pending free agent, is now due for a good game.
"Over a long enough run of games I expect Cliff to perform to his true talent," Washington said, "but outcomes are independent."
6 Comments
Reader Comments (6)
We're getting a little late in the game to be this snarky, aren't we?
I'm not exactly sure what I'm being accused of here, but I have a standing request in with Mrs. Marchman to shoot me if I ever start taking baseball seriously.
lol great stuff. that expos media relations class he took in 01 is finally paying off
Very funny, great job.
Tremendous. He must be taking lessons from Brian Bannister. He needs more PitchFX references though.
That said, Cliff Lee's extraordinarily perceptive self-analysis isn't entirely correct. Having his good stuff is really quite useful, even on a game-to-game basis.