A little learning

I don't get the sense that Mets fans are very excited about today's other news, which is that the club offered Bengie Molina a contract for something like two years and $12 m. Too bad! That would be a really good deal for the Mets.

Molina is old (35), has walked more than 20 times in a season twice in his whole career, and has an irritating reputation for intangibles. All granted. Still, I think people are keying in too much on his ugly on base averages and not enough on just how much catchers suck at hitting. In a bad year Molina, .308 OBA and all, is worth 20 runs above a replacement-level catcher. In a good year, he's worth 30. Give him any credit at all for defense and he's somewhere right around average, maybe a bit above it.

This is a player who's had basically the same season at the plate every year six years running. If he does what he always does—stays healthy, hits some home runs, plays some defense, makes a lot of outs—he'll probably be worth nearly $12 m just in the first year of the deal and anything he does in 2011 will just be dandy. If he completely implodes, whatever. The Mets play in the richest city on the planet and if they can't afford to eat his contract and replace him they have big problems.

If Ken Williams got pissed off at Paul Konerko for doing too many crossword puzzles and released him, would the thinking Mets fan be agitated at the idea of signing him for two years and $12 m rather than playing Daniel Murphy? Probably not, and there's not much difference between the two in value. Molina may not be terribly sexy but if the Mets sign him they will have many, many worse problems, at least as long as they don't bat him leadoff.